Biden-Harris vs. Trump: The Real Story Behind Crime and Immigration

Transcript

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The legislation, however, was blocked by Republicans, largely due to opposition from Trump as part of an election year ploy to essentially keep immigration on the ballot against Biden when he was still the presumptive Democratic nominee.

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Welcome back to the United she Stands podcast, the show that brings kindness and women into politics.

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Welcome back to the United she Stands podcast, the show that brings kindness and women into politics.

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I'm Ashley and I'm Sarah, and we're two women from Ohio who are here to become more educated about American politics and build a community so we can all get involved and make an impact together.

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We hope we'll inspire and empower you along the way.

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Hello and welcome back to the USS podcast.

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Last week we did an episode discussing Trump's administration versus the Biden and Harris administration's economy and the policies they had that either helped or hurt.

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And we started there because the economy is the biggest issue for voters, a selection based on polling.

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The second biggest issue, according to polling reported on by Newsweek, is healthcare.

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And guess what?

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We have an amazing episode with our friend Priya Bathija on that from two weeks back that you can go take a listen to.

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So that leads us to the third and fourth biggest issues voters are concerned with this election, and those are immigration and crime, according to Newsweek, and, like we discussed in the economy episode, the cool thing about this election is we can look back at both the Trump administration's and the Biden and Harris administration's record.

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And yes, we know Harris wasn't president, but Harris was part of this administration and all signs are pointing to Harris adopting many of the same policies.

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We will also be looking back at her record as a senator and her record during her time in the judicial branch, so we really understand where she stands on some of these topics.

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So, with that said, we're going to discuss today who really did it better when it came to crime and immigration Trump or the Biden and Harris administration?

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We shall see, let's jump into it and we're going to be starting with crime.

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And really crime should be easy to measure and report on.

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Right, you can track homicides, assaults, theft, etc.

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Well, yes, while measuring it is pretty straightforward, data collection across the country is a bit lacking.

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The Marshall Project, which does non-profit journalism about criminal justice, explains this well.

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Let's just look at some recent claims by each administration, as they have offered dramatically different accounts of crime trends and come to opposite conclusions about whether people are more or less safe than they were four years ago.

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So in June of 2024, president Joe Biden released a statement boasting about a new quarterly report from the FBI showing dramatic crime rate reductions between 2023 and 2024.

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Part of the statement said violent crime is dropping at record levels in America.

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It's good news for our families and our communities.

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The statement goes on to share some of the FBI findings and states.

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In the first quarter of this year, murders decreased by 26%, robberies by almost 18% and violent crime overall by 15%.

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These large decreases follow major reductions in crime in nearly every category in 2023, including one of the lowest rates for all violent crime in 50 years and significant declines in murder.

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And the last piece of the statement that we'll share summarizes the messaging that Biden and the now Harris campaign have been using on crime.

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It states this progress we're seeing is no accident.

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My administration is putting more cops on the beat, holding more violent criminals accountable and getting illegal guns off the street, and we are doing it in partnership with communities.

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As a result, americans are safer today than when I took office.

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Former President, Donald Trump, was quick to criticize the data In June 2024, at a rally in Philadelphia, Trump said.

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Then, after a long digression about asylum seekers, political correctness, fake news and Biden's age, Trump returned to the subject and said according to the much better crime victimization survey, there has actually been a 43% increase in violent crime since I left office, and Trump said this in the speech that aired live on Newsmax.

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Trump is right that the National Crime Victimization Survey, the NCVS, reported these stats Now.

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With that said, Trump's data is old.

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The most recent NCVS is nearly 18 months out of date and says nothing about what crime rates look like right now.

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Trump also left out that the same year's FBI crime data, which is the other national gold standard used to measure crime, showed a slight decrease in crime in 2022.

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So we have the NCVS saying crime is up and the FBI saying it is down.

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So what's up with the discrepancy between the FBI's uniform crime reporting program and the NCVS's numbers?

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Well, it was a confusing situation in the 2022 crime statistics.

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That occurred because the two reports measure different things.

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The FBI crime data represents incidents reported to the police, while the victimization survey relies on interviews with over 150,000 families, According to PolitiFact.

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researchers say both approaches have value.

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The FBI data tends to be more rigorous because it is based on formal police reports.

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The drawback is that not all crimes may be reported to police.

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The victimization data may capture some of those unreported crimes, but it also can capture events that don't rise to the level of a crime, so these numbers can be inflated.

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The victimization survey also captures a slightly different time frame, Using the 2022 reports as an example.

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While the FBI's crime data collects information from the calendar year, the victimization survey covers victims' experiences from July 1, 2021 to November 30, 2022.

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So what does this all mean?

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This messy dispute between our political candidates on crime data points to a more serious problem.

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The national crime statistics leave large gaps and can make it confusing and more difficult to paint a realistic picture, we know.

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we know not very helpful for today's conversation, is it?

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Well, let's look at what we can tell you, based on the data that we do have.

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All the best available evidence we have today suggests that crime is indeed going down.

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Like we talked about, the FBI's crime statistics started to show a decrease in violent crime in 2023 and 2024.

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Trump and his supporters have been aiming to cast doubt on the findings, going as far as claiming that the FBI is manufacturing the crime statistics in favor of Biden.

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The Marshall Project is our source here and they explain that several criminologists told us this claim by Trump is completely unfounded Because so many police agencies publish weekly crime data and so many non-government organizations are tracking crime statistics.

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On their own, we can verify that Trump's claims are false, as these sources provide another layer of verification for the FBI's crime data and right now, like we said, every source points to a decrease in violent crime, and when we say violent crime, we are talking about murder, manslaughter, rape, robbery and aggravated assault, which is how the FBI defines it.

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Yes, so crime generally decreased from Q4 2022 to Q4 2023, according to the FBI, violent crime was down 5.7%, with murders declining 13.2%, rape declining at 12.5%, robberies declining 4.7% and aggravated assault dropping 4.8%.

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Property crime also declined by 4.3%, burglaries were down 9.8%, arson dropped 8.2% and larceny theft dropped 6.2%.

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According to the FBI, However, one crime did see a considerable spike, and that is motor vehicle theft, which increased 10.7%, continuing a trend of vehicle theft rising in recent years.

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As we read in the statement from earlier, the Biden and Harris administration have claimed that violent crime hit a 50-year low while they've been in office.

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So is it true?

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It in fact is.

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If we look at the actual crime being reported to law enforcement, which is what the FBI does, this means violent crime is lower under the Biden-Harris administration than it ever was under Trump's administration.

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Okay, so crime is currently down, which is great for our communities and country.

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So crime is currently down, which is great for our communities and country.

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Now that we've talked about the state of crime, let's look at what each administration has done to support lower crime rates and support law enforcement efforts.

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Let's start with Trump.

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He signed the First Step Act in 2018.

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It authorized $75 million per year for five years for implementation and was intended to do two main things cut unnecessarily long federal sentences and improve conditions in federal prison, and this has been generally viewed as a good thing, although criminal justice reform needs to go much further, advocates will argue.

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But here's the thing While this bill was about how to treat people who are already convicted of crimes, including help reduce repeat offenses, it does not do anything to reduce or stop crime before it happens.

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Trump actually repeatedly proposed cuts in federal funding for police departments.

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Every year he was in office, he proposed exactly what he accuses Democrats of wanting to do he proposed slashing funding for the police.

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In early February of 2020, the Trump administration proposed a 58% cut in the federal government's COPS hiring program, which is a federal program that supports police department staffing.

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That was not a one-off for his administration.

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His administration's budget proposals throughout his time in office routinely called for huge cuts to this program.

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Now on to Biden and Harris.

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From the same statement from the White House we read earlier.

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The American Rescue Plan their administration signed into law, delivered $15 billion to cities to hire and retain more cops and keep communities safe.

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And just a side note here, every Republican voted against this bill.

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Biden and Harris also signed the bipartisan Safer Communities Act into law, the most significant gun violence legislation in nearly 30 years.

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Now let's take a look at some of Harris's experience, specifically since she is our nominee.

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For those that don't know, she was San Francisco's district attorney and then California's attorney general before her election to the Senate.

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As district attorney, she initiated a policy for first-time drug offenders to get a high school diploma and a job instead of going to prison.

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The intent of this program was to reduce repeat offenses and keep folks out of jail.

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As a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2019, kamala Harris called for increasing funding for body cameras, mental health professionals and officer safety and wellness.

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At no time has she ever called for defunding the police, like you'll hear Donald Trump claim.

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So let's wrap up this section on crime, shall we?

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Violent crime hit 50-year lows under the Biden-Harris administration.

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Their administration invested in safety, including police forces and gun legislation.

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Donald Trump's administration proposed to cut police funding each year.

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He was in office and we can't end this section without talking about the giant GOP elephant in the room, can we?

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Come on, that's funny, but we sure can't, we sure cannot.

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Trump was convicted of 34 felony counts.

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He still faces dozens of criminal charges in other jurisdictions.

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He was held liable for sexual abuse.

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He's been ordered to pay hundreds of millions of dollars for defamation and fraud.

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The GOP being worried about crime is so hard to take seriously when this is their candidate.

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Yes.

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So on the other hand, we have a prosecutor who has spent her time putting criminals away and doing what she could to help reduce repeat offenses and crime in the first place, and now she's a vice president who is part of an administration with historically low violent crime rates and she heads up the Office of Gun Violence Prevention at the White House.

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What I think?

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That just summarizes the two right there, I think it sure does.

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So.

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Should we move on to immigration?

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Let's do it.

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We know immigration will remain as one of the most charged issues for the 2024 presidential election.

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Trump and his allies have mischaracterized Harris's immigration role as vice president, labeling her with a title she never really received, aka border czar.

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And while Trump's false claims are not likely to stop, we can talk about what's really happening at the border and who is responsible.

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So the number of migrants stopped by border patrol agents while attempting to cross the US-Mexico border illegally has surged under the Biden-Harris administration.

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But before Biden-Harris took office, stops doubled year over year in fiscal 2019 under Trump, reaching higher numbers than any year Obama was in office.

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2020 saw a decline, largely due to the pandemic, but illegal crossings had been trending up under Trump before the pandemic.

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Over the last three and a half years under Biden and Harris, illegal crossings have been comparably higher.

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Amid a global migration crisis.

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The dramatic surge in unauthorized immigration in Biden and Harris' first few years was spurred by major factors outside of the president's control, such as the ebbing of the COVID-19 pandemic and the upheaval in several Latin American countries.

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Okay, so those are the numbers.

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Let's talk about policy now so we can understand if the actions either administration took played a part in the current situation.

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Trump entered the White House promising a southern border wall to stop illegal crossings and say he'd work with Congress to pass laws to crack down on illegal immigration.

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Trump failed to complete a border wall, though he did achieve funding for some of it, and Congress failed to pass any immigration bills, even when Republicans controlled both chambers.

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According to the Migration Policy Institute, a nonpartisan policy group, trump did use some of his power in the executive branch to increase enforcement and restrict legal immigration, but passing laws is usually more effective because they last for much longer and can't be reversed by another president.

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The border wall was one of the things he talked about most At a CNN town hall in 2023, trump claimed that his administration finished building a wall along the 1,954-mile border separating the US and Mexico, but according to a Customs and Border Protection report written two days after Trump left office in 2021, about 458 miles of the wall were completed under his administration, with another 280 miles identified for construction but never finished.

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And of those 458 miles, just 52 miles covered sections of the border that hadn't previously had a barrier.

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The other 406 replaced shorter barriers that already existed with a fence made of reinforced hollow steel ranging from 18 to 33 feet high, Combined with fencing that predated Trump's presidency.

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About 700 miles, mostly along public land, in Arizona and New Mexico now have a barrier To build his wall, trump had to bulldoze, dig and tear through land along the border, waiving over 50 environmental laws and regulations.

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The damage drew strong protests from environmentalists, native tribes and private landowners.

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Construction damaged streams and led to vegetation removal, creating rapid erosion.

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Near Arizona's San Bernardino National Wildlife Refuge, flash floods tore some of the wall's floodgates from their hinges.

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Rivers that flow south across the border into Mexico are now contaminated with rust from the wall, killing native fish.

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In Guadalupe Canyon in southeastern Arizona, construction crews dynamite blasted into the mountainside to erect a barrier, altering a critical habitat for endangered cross-border species, including jaguars.

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In quotes here, animals have been migrating through this route for tens of thousands of years, said Miles Traffigan, a biologist mapping the impact of the wall.

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Quotes again if we cut off this population, we're essentially altering the evolutionary history of North America.

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So, environmental issues aside, has the wall really helped?

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There's really no evidence to say it has.

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In fact, as we've shared, illegal border crossings have really only increased in recent years.

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Okay, let's move on to policy during the Biden and Harris administration.

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As we stated earlier, comprehensive immigration reform has eluded Congress for decades, but earlier this year, in 2024, lawmakers attempted to pass a bipartisan bill, backed by the Biden-Harris administration, that included increased funding and resources for border officials, in addition to some relatively hardline measures.

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The legislation, however, was blocked by Republicans, largely due to opposition from Trump, as part of an election year ploy to essentially keep immigration on the ballot against Biden when he was still the presumptive Democratic nominee.

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And we got to talk about this for a minute because, yes, you heard that right Donald Trump had Republican senators kill a bill that a bipartisan group had been working on for months.

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This was part of a Ukraine aid package.

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Many in the GOP at the time insisted they could only support further aid to Ukraine if it was paired with tougher border security measures to address that crisis.

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The Biden and Harris administration accepted their conditions giving up Democrats longtime demands on immigration and conceding much of what the Republicans wanted so they could get this deal signed.

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But then, at the direction of Donald Trump who, let's just remember, is not even in office at this time, republican senators, led by Mitch McConnell, backed out of the deal.

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In a closed-door meeting with Republicans.

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Mcconnell said, and quotes here McConnell said, end quote here the politics on this have changed.

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The issue is that the nominee Trump wants to campaign on immigration.

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We don't want to do anything to undermine him, end quote.

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Mcconnell was alluding to the fact that Trump wants there to be chaos at the border while Biden and Harris are in office because he thinks it will help him win the election.

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Trump does not want congressional Republicans making a deal with Biden and Harris to address the actual problem, because that would make them look good.

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Mitt Romney, another Republican senator, confirmed this In quotes here from him.

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The border is a very important issue for Donald Trump, and the fact that he would communicate to Republican senators and Congress people that he doesn't want us to solve the border problem because he wants to blame Biden for it, is really appalling.

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So with the bipartisan bill killed and unauthorized arrivals very high.

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Biden and Harris did what they could on their own First officials got the Mexican government to agree to do more to stop migrants from getting to the US border in the first place.

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Analysts believe this is likely the main reason why the number of arrivals dropped quite a bit in the first half of 2024.

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Second was their executive actions to restrict asylum claims even further, shutting down the asylum process if too many people were coming in.

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Many had previously argued that they didn't have the legal authority to do this, but they decided to try it anyway, leaving it up to the courts whether to block this policy.

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So that leaves us where we are today no bill, but executive action has been taken to bring border crossings back down, and they have fallen sharply in recent months.

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But what?

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about the future.

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What will our two candidates do if they are back in office?

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Trump has not offered much in the way of plans for comprehensive immigration reform if he returns to the White House.

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He's just made promises for mass deportations, which really doesn't solve the problem of crossings in the first place.

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Harris, on the other hand, supported the bipartisan legislation at the time and noted Trump's efforts to kill it.

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In her remarks at the August rally in Arizona, the vice president added that if she wins the election, she would sign the immigration reform bill into law if it comes across her desk.

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She also supports opening more legal pathways for immigration.

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All right, so let's summarize immigration, shall we?

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Immigration numbers have been trending up since 2017, when Trump took office, except for 2020 due to the pandemic.

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Yes, illegal border crossings have been higher under the Biden and Harris administration, but they are also very open to, and willing to work across the aisle to get meaningful legislation passed to reform immigration.

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Harris supports bringing the bill back and signing it, should she win this November.

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Trump has made promises for mass deportation and to make it harder for people to immigrate here illegally.

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All righty, that's it for today.

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There you have it.

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Thank you for joining us.

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We hope you've had the time of your life and we hope you come back next week for our new episode.

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Thanks, thanks.

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See ya, thanks.

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Thanks See ya, who edited this episode, if you're interested in learning more about him and his services.

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His website and Instagram are in the show notes With that.

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We'll see you next week.

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Crime is up.

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So much Crime is so much up.

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Damn it.

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Why does he speak so stupidly?

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That's exactly how he said it.

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I know I messed up your flow.

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I haven't messed up enough yet, so it's here.

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From the same statement from the White House we, my glasses are sliding.

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I thought that too.

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I was like I could just like play it cool if Ash plays it cool, but I just felt like neither of us could be able to play it cool according, okay, yeah that's a whole sentence she said, should read that all together, okay.

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Nair, nair that's my Australian accent for no Nair.